Fintech innovation - Blockchain. Should you measure its progress with the hype-cycle or technology adaptation cycle?

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that Block chain technology is still in its early stages and investing so much money is a risky proposition. The great dilemma today is, do you measure it with a technology hype cycle or with the technology adaptation cycle. You can ignore it till a good use-case that goes beyond demonstrations emerges and call it a hype cycle. Or, you can adapt it early and call yourself an innovator and early adapter as per the technology adaptation cycle.

My personal take is, we should watch it with optimism but use it with caution. Meaning postpone the question further and risk being called laggards than burn money. The reason is, there is a fundamental question that DLT in the current shape does not answer. The questions is, can you digitize trust beyond the assumptions and limitations imposed by bitcoin currency?

Let me elaborate it a bit further. Bitcoin's implementation of block chain does not solve the Byzantine generals problem. It cleverly side steps it using Proof of Work(PoW) and mining rewards. The problem is, if you copy the same technology without PoW and mining rewards, trust cannot be convincingly digitized given that there are other mechanisms like cloud and /or distributed databases. So, you derive only minimal benefits using block chain. On the other hand, if you use these two, there are scale, privacy and longevity problems and you cannot use it in any real world use case without fear of an implosion at some point in time.

Probably, the best approach is to keep paddling along and follow all the new use cases and demonstrations while waiting for some mathematical or computer genius to come along and provides real answers. In short, hang on to the fence!